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style="display:inline;" src="/Article/hits/id/4.html">792</div> </div> <div id="miw2muq" class="article_content"> 、預計產(chǎn)量反彈<br /> 近年來(lái)尿素產(chǎn)量連年下降，特別是2017年降幅較大，超過(guò)10%，預計2018年會(huì )有所反彈。經(jīng)過(guò)市場(chǎng)大浪淘沙，落后產(chǎn)能基本已被淘汰，剩下的尿素企業(yè)基本上都是成本低、競爭力強的企業(yè)，如果沒(méi)有外界因素的強力干擾，這些企業(yè)都可保持高負荷生產(chǎn)。季度和四季度處于采暖季，天然氣供應緊張，加之治理冬季大氣污染需要，環(huán)保限產(chǎn)較嚴，企業(yè)開(kāi)工率處于相對低位；二季度和三季度生產(chǎn)環(huán)境相對寬松，天然氣和煤炭供應狀況大幅好轉，預計企業(yè)開(kāi)工率將超過(guò)60%。<br /> <br /> <span style="white-space:normal;"> </span>二、農業(yè)需求下降，工業(yè)需求增加<br /> <span style="white-space:normal;"> </span>受測土配方施肥、化肥零增長(cháng)、有機肥替代、農產(chǎn)品價(jià)格低，以及復合肥、氯化銨、硫酸銨施用量增加等因素影響，預計2018年農業(yè)尿素需求量將下降3%以上。而工業(yè)尿素用量在增長(cháng)。相關(guān)分析師表示，目前人造板行業(yè)尿素需求量占比超過(guò)60%。國內人造板總產(chǎn)量超過(guò)2.8億立方米，按每萬(wàn)立方米板材消耗尿素0.04萬(wàn)噸測算，尿素需求量超過(guò)1100萬(wàn)噸。隨著(zhù)消費者裝修需求和理念的變化，未來(lái)人造板將保持5%左右的增速。另個(gè)主要工業(yè)需求增量是柴油車(chē)尾氣處理，正在推進(jìn)國五排放法規，意味著(zhù)近幾年車(chē)用尿素市場(chǎng)將迎來(lái)高速增長(cháng)期。預計未來(lái)每年SCR系統增量在35萬(wàn)輛，按每年每輛行駛15萬(wàn)公里、每100公里耗1.5升車(chē)用尿素溶液計算，車(chē)用尿素需求量每年將增加約26萬(wàn)噸。<br /> <br /> <span style="white-space:normal;"> </span>三、出口困難，警惕進(jìn)口<br /> <span style="white-space:normal;"> </span>國際尿素有成本勢，國內企業(yè)仍能堅持生產(chǎn)。下半年在印度尿素招標帶動(dòng)下，連續兩個(gè)月大漲，高價(jià)超過(guò)290美元。由于成本低，國際尿素廠(chǎng)家游刃有余，價(jià)格低時(shí)能堅持生產(chǎn)，價(jià)格高時(shí)多賺效益。中國尿素成本高，只能在國際價(jià)格高時(shí)有所出口，價(jià)格低時(shí)無(wú)法出口。2018年隨著(zhù)美國等地尿素新裝置投產(chǎn)，國際尿素產(chǎn)量進(jìn)步增加，中國尿素出口更困難，預計全年出口量難以超過(guò)500萬(wàn)噸。<br /></div> <div id="k0im4y0" class="article_editor"> 來(lái)源：本站編輯：超級管理員</div> <div 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